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Weather los angeles el nino11/21/2023 When crafting the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries committed to “pursuing efforts” to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. Island nations have spearheaded the effort to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees because it’s a matter of survival for low-lying atolls that could be swallowed up by rising ocean waters. Met Office, told the Guardian last month.Ĭlimate activists hold protest signs calling upon the G20 conference to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C during the COP27 climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, November 15, 2022.ġ.5 degrees is about the level of warming that scientists say would be more likely to start setting off irreversible feedback loops, such as the disintegration of ice sheets in Greenland and the West Antarctic, the abrupt thawing of permafrost in the Arctic, or the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s Gulf Stream current (as imagined in the film The Day After Tomorrow). The chance that El Niño could push the planet above that mark for the first time, however, has about a 50/50 chance of happening in the next five years, Adam Scaife, the head of long-range prediction at the U.K. Most estimates said 1.5 degrees of warming wouldn’t arrive until at least the early 2030s. The world has already warmed an average of 1.2 degrees C (2.2 degrees F) since the Industrial Revolution ushered in the widespread use of fossil fuels. Researchers in Germany and China, some of whom issued an early warning for the El Niño that began in 2015, have predicted an 89 percent chance that the pattern will emerge this year - and have cautioned that it could be a strong one. According to the most recent forecast from NOAA, El Niño has a 60 percent chance of forming by the fall, although other scientists are more confident it’s on the way. It might also push the world past a threshold that scientists have been warning about, giving people a temporary glimpse of what it’s like to live on a planet that’s 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) than preindustrial times - a level that could begin to unleash some of the more drastic consequences of climate change.Įl Niño is expected to arrive later this year, and the warmer weather pattern could continue to build up through 2024, sending global temperatures past that 1.5 degrees C marker, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, after which they could ease back when a La Niña returns. The planet hasn’t seen a strong El Niño since 2016 - the hottest year ever recorded - and the next El Niño will occur on top of all the warming that’s occurred since then.Įl Niño’s return could further strain sensitive ecosystems, like the Great Barrier Reef and the Amazon rainforest, and nudge the planet closer to worrisome tipping points. Distinguished by warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the weather pattern has consequences for temperatures, drought, and rainfall around the world. This year and next, La Niña might give way to its hotter counterpart, El Niño. But the scorch factor of recent years was actually tempered by a climate pattern that slightly cools the globe, “La Niña.” The last three years were objectively hot, numbering among the warmest since records began in 1880.
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